I made my annual trek Friday to the home of thoroughbred racing – Saratoga, New York.  Having grown up in upstate New York, going to the ‘track’ is a summer ritual that I have tried to keep up each year. Saratoga is known as the “Graveyard of Favorites” which means betting the favorite is not always the thing to do. I was there for The Whitney Stakes on August 4, 1973 when Onion upset the great Secretariat.  A perfect example of how playing it safe can be a loser. Secretariat was such an overwhelming favorite that you could only bet him to win and he would only pay 10 cents for every dollar bet, but it was a sure thing….so much for a sure thing.

On this Friday, I arrived at the track early and I reviewed the past performances for the first race. I had made my picks but I couldn’t help but notice one horse only won when the track was muddy. It was overcast and rain was likely sometime later in the day but for now the track was dry and fast. I made my pick then read my newspaper as I waited for post time. Just about five minutes before race time, I looked up from my paper to see that the skies had opened up and it was pouring. Being a quick study, I rushed to the window to bet the “mudder” and as it turned out it was the only correct pick I made all day.

The point here could be “don’t bet on the horses” … but really the point is to keep aware of changing conditions and be the first to act when you see an opportunity. As an independent you have real advantage to be able to talk to your customer and change as conditions warrant. As with Friday at Saratoga, the big guys (chains) might not have even noticed it was raining and even if they did, they sure as heck would not have been able to change their bet five minutes before post time.

By the way, if you have never been to Saratoga during race season give it a try. Even if you are not a horse player the experience at the oldest thoroughbred race track in the U.S. is something to witness.

-Mike

Advertisement